Friday, July 10, 2009

Israeli sub, said armed with nuclear-capable torpedoes, navigates Suez Canal


DEBKAfile Special Report

The Dolphin-class attack submarine was the first Israeli naval vessel to transit the Suez Canal in four years on its way from Haifa to Eilat last month. According to DEBKAfile's military sources, the move indicates a strengthening of the informal Israel-Egyptian-Saudi pact forged in recent months against Iran and first revealed by our sources. The Israeli Dolphins are stationed in the Mediterranean, the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean opposite Iran's shores. They are said to be armed with torpedo tubes capable of launching nuclear-capable cruise missiles.
To transit the Suez Canal, the armed submarine would have required Egyptian permission at the highest level, possibly even President Hosni Mubarak. One official in Cairo told Reuters that its passage would not be problematic as Egypt and Israel are not at war.
This noncommittal response indicates that Egypt would have no objection to Israeli military craft passing through the canal on their way to the Red Sea and on to the Persian Gulf in case of a decision to strike Iran. The alternative would be a voyage of weeks around the Horn of Africa.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Forty-Eight Hours of Reality

Sometimes I miss the brilliance and decency of Earl Krugel so badly that is almost physically painful.
A shout out to the woman he loved and his family, Lola Krugel and their children.
Michael Blackburn, Sr.


By Barry Rubin*

June 16, 2009


In the Middle East the best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry because reality steps in.

President Barack Obama based his policy of engaging with Iran on the idea that while President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was a wild man, Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei was a closet moderate, or at least a pragmatist.
Now all can see that Ahmadinejad and Khamenei are wedded, together at last. Khamenei is so set on Ahmadinejad’s character and policy that he risked the regime’s internal and external credibility and stability in order to reassure his reelection.

Pro-Ahmadinejad forces are now talking about this event as a “third revolution,” following on the 1979 Islamist takeover and then seizure of the U.S. embassy and the holding of all their as hostages. In other words, this is an even more radical rebirth of the movement, but this time with nuclear weapons.
Reality: 1, Obama policy: 0

Then comes the Palestinian reaction to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech which accepts immediate negotiations and a Palestinian state at the end of the process, if an agreement can be made.
What did Obama say in Cairo? First, he said that the Palestinians, have “suffered in pursuit of a homeland” for more than 60 years. Second, he insisted that “the situation for the Palestinian people is intolerable.”

As I pointed out at the time, the first statement was a misrepresentation of history, the second a false picture of the present.

Now if Obama was right, the Palestinians should be eager for a state. So if Netanyahu calls on them to recognize Israel as a Jewish state—what do they care if they are accepting to live alongside it permanently?—and have their own state. Yes, that state would be “demilitarized,” I prefer the word “unmilitarized,” but all that means is that they would have the same security forces that they do now. And in proportional terms, the Palestinian Authority (PA) already has more men in uniform compared to the overall population, than any state on the planet.

So here’s Obama’s solution: an independent Palestinian state, Muslim and Arab, according to the PA’s constitution for that country, next to a Jewish state.

But how does the PA’s leader—who is always referred to as “moderate” in the Western media and is more moderate than any other Palestinian leader (it’s all relative)—react?

Nabil Abu Rdainah, spokesman for PA leader Abbas, said Netanyahu’s speech "torpedoes all peace initiatives in the region." Another top PA leader, Yasser Abed Rabbo, said that recognizing Israel's Jewish character would force Palestinians "to become part of the global Zionist movement".

Think carefully about what Rabbo said. Very carefully. The Zionist movement advocates a Jewish state, Israel, exists. But the PA leadership—the top “official” leadership, the most moderate people in the Palestinian movement—are still not reconciled to Israel’s existence.

Sure, there might be a country there but not a Jewish state, in their thinking. But if it isn’t a Jewish state, why call it Israel? They have another name for the future state they have in mind for Israel to become: Palestine.

How does even the BBC, famous for its anti-Israel bias, explain this? “The Palestinians say they and their millions of descendants have the right to return to Israel - which would mean an end to its Jewish majority - but Israel has consistently rebuffed that demand.”

And Abbas is well-known as a fervent advocate of this “right of return.” So Netanyahu is right: the core of the issue is the refusal to accept Israel’s existence as Israel, not a Palestinian “pursuit of a homeland” or “intolerable situation.”

Ladies and gentleman, the facts are before you.

Iran’s regime is irreconcilable. It seeks to become the main regional power. It doesn’t want conciliation with America, it wants America’s defeat.

The Palestinian movement as presently constituted is irreconcilable. It wants to destroy Israel, not live alongside it. The movement prefers to sustain the conflict for decades rather than make a stable peace.

President Obama and everyone else, take heed and act accordingly. You already have two strikes against you and we're just getting started.



* Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), with Walter Laqueur (Viking-Penguin); the paperback edition of The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan); A Chronological History of Terrorism, with Judy Colp Rubin, (Sharpe); and The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley). To read and subscribe to MERIA, GLORIA articles, or to order books, go to http://www.gloria-center.org
The Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center
Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya, P.O. Box 167, Herzliya, 46150, Israel
info@gloria-center.org- Phone: +972-9-960

Friday, June 12, 2009

Israel and America: Neither Surrender nor Confrontation


By Barry Rubin*

June 11, 2009

http://www.gloria-center.org/Gloria/2009/06/israel-and-america.html


The United States demands that Israel stop construction on settlements. If this doesn’t happen, it hints at dire retaliation.

If Israel agrees to this step, President Barack Obama promises great things. First, he claims this will bring dramatic progress toward Israel-Palestinian peace.

That’s rubbish. We know that yielding would be followed by Palestinian Authority (PA) demands for more unilateral Israeli concessions. PA leaders openly say their strategy is to let the West force Israel to give them everything they want without any change by them. We know the current PA leadership is both disinterested and incapable of making real peace.

In addition, the U.S. initiative is absurdly one-sided, without hint of reciprocity by the other side. Equally, the administration’s brutal-style rhetoric denies previous U.S. commitments to Israel have been made on this issue. This approach seems almost designed to convince Israelis that further unilateral concessions will continue to be unrewarded and Western commitments continue to be forgotten.

Second, we are promised that if Israel gives in, Arab states will change their policies, becoming more conciliatory toward Israel and more helpful on pressing Iran.

This, too, is rubbish. Arab regimes have their own interests. They need the conflict; they view its solution to be an American problem. They’ve already make it clear that the United States will get nothing from them for pressuring Israel into concessions except demands to press Israel for more concessions.

Third, we’re promised that if Israel stops construction on settlements, the West can act more effectively on Iran. But they’ve already chosen a policy of engagement and concessions to Iran. There’s no will or ability to increase sanctions, not to mention continuing opposition by Russia and China.

So this, equally, is rubbish. Iran will make no deal, is stall for time, and correctly assess Western willpower as low. Of course, Iran wants to be regional hegemon. It sees having nuclear weapons as a plus whose political and economic costs are low.

Most disgusting of all are honeyed claims by American and European officials—be they cynical or foolish—that such concessions are good for Israel, as it will help it make peace and greater security. In truth, they want Israel to make concessions for their own selfish interests. They believe it will make the radical Islamist threat go away at Israel’s expense.

What then is the reality? If Israel ceases construction on settlements it will get nothing. Arab states, the PA, and West won’t change policies. Iran will go merrily on toward nuclear weapons.

Nevertheless, there’s still a strong case for Israel making a gesture to the U.S. administration for several reasons:

--To avoid alienating the U.S. government. Failing to resolve this issue means that the administration will blame its inevitable failures and certain lack of progress in the region on Israel for the next three, perhaps next seven, years.

--By saying “no,” Israel would play into the scapegoating game, letting everyone pretend that all would be fine if Israel only altered its behavior. American and European policymakers will claim the only reason they can’t get peace, Arab cooperation, or an end to Iran’s nuclear drive is because of Israel’s behavior.

--The issue is construction, not dismantling settlements or withdrawing from more land. While one might respond that will be the next demand, a partial “yes” now does not inhibit saying “no” on a bigger issue.

--Israel’s first response, offering removal of outposts or roadblocks and asking for adherence to past promises, has failed. Up to a point, stalling is a good tactic. No matter how determined the U.S. government is on this issue at present, months can go by in maneuverings. Crises and distractions will arise; the U.S. administration might learn to understand reality better.

To me the decisive factors are these: A single gesture must be made toward the new U.S. administration as a “gift” to Obama in order to consolidate his personal commitment to Israel. The fact that this step is temporary, reversible and doesn’t endanger Israeli lives makes it preferable to alternative actions.

On issues like east Jerusalem, border modifications, security guarantees regarding any future Palestinian state, no compromise with Hamas, and others, Israelis are willing to stand up and face any consequences of a break with the United States. But this specific issue is simply not worth a confrontation, especially because it is the first request by the Obama administration.

There is also a way to do it on Israel’s terms: a temporary, reversible freeze on construction, not including Jerusalem and in a clear framework of what Israel expects in return, with the results to be judged solely by Israel.

What are these conditions? Two could be continuing Western efforts to isolate Hamas, the end to official PA incitement to kill Israelis and wipe Israel off the map.

Other conditions could be private, like evidence of a stronger Western effort against Iran’s nuclear weapons’ drive.
If these things don’t happen, Israel warns in advance that it would say: “We told you so. This experiment has failed” and return to construction. Such a move would provoke criticism that Israel could far more easily resist at costs lower than at present. It should be stressed that unlike withdrawing from territory or dismantling settlements, a construction freeze would be a reversible step.

If these things don’t happen, Israel warns in advance that it would say: “We told you so. This experiment has failed” and return to construction. Such a move would provoke criticism that Israel could far more easily resist at costs lower than at present. It should be stressed that unlike withdrawing from territory or dismantling settlements, a construction freeze would be a reversible step.

Netanyahu knows how far he can go without unraveling his coalition. By conditioning it as suggested here, he could more likely sell a limited concession to his cabinet.

But what he should certainly avoid is alternative concessions to “protect” settlement construction which would be far more dangerous to Israeli lives and interests without solving Israel’s problem with the United States. These could include going too far in loosening restrictions on the flow of goods into the Gaza Strip or dismantling needed roadblocks.

Israel should respond flexibly on the construction issue but only in a way shaped by its own interests and far better appreciation of the situation in the Middle East.

The Global R

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Israel Seeks Justice, AP Makes Propaganda

Every week I write a column on AP coverage of the Middle East and every week I am appalled anew at the profound and omnipresent bias in the coverage. I am not looking to bash the AP. On the contrary, when I find something fair and balanced I’m extremely pleased. It happens all too rarely

Sometimes it’s the simplest stories that draw one’s attention and linger in one’s memory. So here’s a little 257-word article which well illustrates the problem. You can find many other examples on this blog and at our other site,  [and you cansubscribe to our shorter articles or MERIA Journal there if you would like.]

The article, by Joseph Marks of AP was published May 12. The information is pretty much all taken from the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.

Basically here’s the story: 

“Israeli military police arrested two soldiers as part of an investigation of alleged looting during Israel's invasion of Gaza in January, the military said in a statement Tuesday.

“A newspaper said the two soldiers were suspected of stealing and using a stolen credit card.
The statement said the military prosecution is investigating complaints from human rights groups and lawyers about behavior of Israeli forces during the operation, which was aimed at stopping daily rocket fire at Israel by Palestinian militants.”

Let’s consider what this means. The Israeli government is seriously nvestigating every complaint from groups—many of which are supportive of the Palestinians and even of Hamas and severely critical of Israel in general—to try to discover honestly whether they are accurate. This takes up the time of a limited staff and funding that might be better used elsewhere, but it is an attempt both to maintain standards and to show the world the basic decency of the country.

One would expect, but in vain,  some complementary quotes or language to this effect in such articles.

In one case out of many—not to mention the wild accusations and claims without evidence which has shaped the world’s image of the Gaza war—there is some evidence of wrongdoing, specifically that two soldiers seem to have stolen a credit card and run up a $400 bill on it. They might also have damaged the property of the Palestinian family.

It’s pretty admirable that Israel’s army has tried so hard first to avoid civilian casualties and then to investigate any possible criminal actions during the war. And of course if the evidence so indicates the two soldiers will be tried and if convicted they will be punished. (In comparison, under international pressure, the Palestinian Authority imprisons terrorists who have attacked Israel--but only on charges of damaging Palestinian interests--and often let them quietly out of jail at the first possible opportunity. No scandalized articles or international pressure results from this behavior.)

To its credit, this article, unlike many, at least mentions that there were daily rocket attacks that provoked the war. That is far better than usual. Still, one might expect that it would also add that Hamas rejected the ceasefire, thus making the war inevitable.

But then the article drops in some additional information that really has nothing to do with this specific story:

“At least 1,100 Palestinians were killed during the three-week offensive, many of them civilians.”

Since presumably these two soldiers didn’t kill 1,100 Palestinians, what is that doing here? Moreover, detailed studies are now showing that claims about the casualty figures are seriously misleading. Hundreds of alleged civilians have been shown, using Palestinian media sources, to be gunmen, often members of the Hamas-dominated police or military forces. 

Actually, to be fully accurate, I will add that the article states, according to Haaretz—which is known for emphasizing any possible criticism of Israel and its government—that one alleged killing is being investigated. That’s it, and we are not talking here about what Israel’s government claims but the sum total of specific accusations presented by all human rights’ groups and critics.

Unmentioned are Israeli casualties, both civilian and military, which are much lower than those of Palestinians. But if one is going to mention casualties in a war, why not both sides? The intention, of course, is to give the impression that this is just the tip of the iceberg.

Yet to date, no journalist or human rights’ group or pretty much anyone else with any minimal credibility has provided details of any alleged actions that could be described as wrongdoings, much less the massive war crimes often charged.

And presumably, no Hamas soldiers or officials are going to be investigated by the radical Islamist regime. Moreover, there have been credible reports—including from Palestinian sources—of killings, shootings, and beatings of Palestinians who either criticized Hamas or supported its rival, Fatah. These have been publicized in some media but not very much, especially compared to the high visibility and length exposition of accusations against Israel.

But there’s no hint of all of this in the article. Here is the final paragraph:

“An overall inquiry by the military of its own actions during the conflict cleared soldiers of wrongdoing, infuriating human rights and Palestinian groups, who charged that killing civilians was the result of an Israeli policy to use extra firepower in built-up areas to protect the soldiers.”

I have previously analyzed the AP’s coverage of the report and showed how its stories mainly gave massive space to such criticisms and little to anyone explaining or defending the report. 

Moreover, despite these generalized statements intended to discredit the report, again, no specific evidence has been presented. 

But note as well a very interesting point here which even if no other problem with this article existed would show its profound bias. The charge against Israel is made--“extra firepower”--but the Israeli explanation—that Hamas deliberately used civilians as human shields and violated international law by employing hospitals, mosques, and schools as military bases—isn’t even mentioned.

And even aside from this, no opportunity is given to point out that even if this claim were to be proven the alternative would be for Israeli commanders to consciously sacrifice their own soldiers in the hope of reducing casualties on the other side.

I know of no other army in the world that would act in this way—I am talking about reasonable margins and not carpet bombing or other measures which Western countries have done in similar circumstances. 

But I am aware of a case in which Israel did risk and lose soldiers due to an overly conscientious caution. It was in Jenin during the second intifada. And Israel’s reward for this strategy of going house to house with infantrymen rather than use artillery or tanks—at the cost of three dozen casualties—was to be falsely accused of waging a massacre on the basis of no evidence and to be vilified worldwide. 

So, as in many AP articles, the intention is to make Israel look bad, to whitewash its enemies, to magnify their arguments and to muzzle any response. Day after day, week after week, this pattern prevails.

If an AP journalist or editor insists that their coverage is fair or balanced please laugh in his face.

Irv Rubin and Earl Krugel